Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Consensus has the US market peaking last week

A trip to the temple on the mount reveals a consensus view that the US market topped last week...

From David Rosenberg (ex-Merrill Lynch chief equity strategist) via The Pragmatic Capitalist

The bulls enjoyed and the bears endured a massive 37% rally in the S&P 500 from the March 9th lows to the May 8th highs. Both in terms of duration and magnitude, this proved to be the most intense rally during this 20-month long bear market. And, the bounce has been so impressive that it has taken what was widely considered to be a massively undervalued stock market in early March to one that is now at least moderately expensive. (The FTSE All-World market P/E ratio on forward earnings estimates is now around 15x, well above pre-Lehman collapse levels and nearly double the lows for the cycle.)

Since the rebound from the March 9th lows was again led by the four sectors that led the decline during the bear phase – financials, consumer discretionary, materials and industrials – it stands to reason that this was just another counter-trend rally. What we know about history is that the sectors that led the downturn are never the ones to emerge as leaders in the next sustainable bull market.

The thoughts of Jeffrey Saut from US based Raymond James (via Market Folly)
last week felt like a trend change to me with the S&P500 losing more than 8%, the Russell 2000 surrendering some 7% and the DJ Transports shedding nearly 9%
Gary Shilling interviewed on (Via TPC again) calling the S&P back down to 600 - using S&P EPS of $40 and a generous P/E multiple of 15x...

From Zentrader on Robert Prechter (Elliot Wave practitioner) calling for a resumption of the downtrend near term ...his target for the Dow is 2000 in a replay of the 1929-32 debacle where the Dow lost 80% of its value...

...and even Fox News trying its hand (the Evil Speculator)... 

From my currency trading days, nine times out of ten the consensus opinion turns out to be wrong. When it is right, it is because no one is actually backing their opinions with large positions.  Now given that we have blown most bears out of the water, maybe this time it will be the "end of the bear market rally".

For mine, I'm with Tim Knight at Slope of Hope
if the highs from May 7/8 aren't taken out this week, I think the bulls are in for a meaningful correction; if we do get new highs this week, I think the bulls could carry the S&P back into the quadruple-digits with virtually no pause.

And some more hope for bears  from the Evil Speculator - Molecool is on VIX watch (waiting for confirmation of a sell signal that has proven prescient at turning points) 

Mr Vix closed below its 2.0 Bollinger again and you know what that means. We are one step in a possible equity sell signal.

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