Thursday, July 30, 2009

Another twist of the urn?

What is the digital age equivalent of 'another nail in the coffin'? Anyways we have one, with latest sentiment readings tipping into 'maybe just one more' territory. That leave's the 'roadie' and 'make mine a double' (slurred to the surprisingly good looking bar tender) to come.

The Pragmatic Capitalist has the latest AAII and State Street Confidence readings - both of which support the capitulation buying that we are witnessing. Bespoke has a less pessimistic take on the AAII survey results. Note too this confirms a trend noted in Mark Hulberts newsletter readings from a week ago.

Now with the XJO hitting my near side target for this rally (~4230 per the chart below), it's time to head for cash...

Doesn't mean the market can't push higher- 4400 is a stretch target from here - but my money is on at least a pullback in the near term.

In terms of individual positions on the blog, how does this translate? (For clarity, I have disclosed 'new' positions on this blog as I have put them on. My portfolio's were established before the blog got going - hence, I have not covered all my holdings. We will get there eventually.)

Happy to sit on a smaller balance in DUE and CEU for the moment. I'm nervous about QBE given its earnings exposure to USD and GBP - will probably lighten (need to do some analysis on this beast). I'm happy to add to NCM on dips to $29.50ish. As for WBC - it supports the case for another push higher - maybe $22.80?

No comments:

Post a Comment