Tuesday, July 21, 2009

How far can we go?

The markets have a head of steam up at present, and while there's probably a few points to be made for the gazelles amongst us on a near term pullback, chances are we have a ways to go yet in this group therapy session.

Looking at XJO, there is little in the way of resistance before we get to ~4200 - where the trendline kicks in and the top of the bollinger band awaits. Would like to see a tradeable pullback from there (maybe tipping through 4000 at a stretch). But even then I get the sense that we could at least test and maybe push through the next most recent high around 4340.

Note that while the weekly volumes and momentum is still trending lower, the daily is picking up a rises in both measures. Guess that confirms the current move, but undermines it longer term.

From my perch in the tree, I reckon the current uptick will take us through to late August - and the time will have come to unfurl the bear banner once more.

(Based on this view I have been placing a few long side bets over the last few days - long BHP at $35.05, long NCM at $30.30, long QBE at $20.10, and long WBC at $20.00...Note these are trades not long term holds)

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