Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Signs of retail capitulation

If retail are capitulating then the odds are shortening on a near term correction in the US equities market. Not that it means it has to be a resumption of the bear, could just as easily be a dip before we push higher.

In addition to the CBOE put/call ratio that is hovering around 0.60, MarketWatch reports that the AAII survey has reached highs not seen since December 07.

And even the brokers are bold enough to speak plainly about it...

From JP Morgan (via TPC)
We see two catalysts for a continuation of the equity rally. First, economic data will likely continue to post positive surprises driven by developed economies. We track economic surprises using our Economic Activity Surprise Index, which remains firmly in the positive territory. Second, retail investors will likely start deploying a greater portion of their excess cash into equities rather than bonds, as slower declines in corporate bond yields will make the capital gains on their bond holdings look less impressive than in the past months.

The question is who is selling?

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