Monday, August 17, 2009

Under the pump - close-out QBE

QBE marked out a trend reversal on Friday, has been treading water between 20.80 and 21.30, and looks to me like the risks are to the downside for a break out of this consolidation. I don't have the time to think about - closed-out the position.


  1. What do you reckon? The beginning of the end of this little bear market rally, or just a little breather before a puch higher?

    I wasn't sure the rally could stay in place till October/November as your earlier post mentioned, though a couple of days of rest might leave a little bit of space for a final push in 6 weeks or so.

  2. I'm a little distracted at present but bigger picture am firmly of the view that the markets head lower all the way into March next match that view still stubbornly sitting on my core short.

    In short term though, not sure how it will play out. Is there one last 'buy the dip' rally? And from what level is that rally? I'd be surprised if XJO breaks 4300 this week, but on the other hand am expecting 4000 by mid-september. In short, don't have a strong view - other than we are very, very close to the top and in 6 months time we will be a lot lower...